Jon Krause

Géopolitique de la récession

FLORENCE – Que la Chine soit passée devant le Japon pour se hisser au deuxième rang des économies mondiales n’a pas été une surprise. C’est l’événement géopolitique majeur de ce début de 21ème siècle – porteur à la fois d’espoir économique et de crainte politique.

Tout d’abord, la bonne nouvelle : l’aspect économique du dossier. La réponse de la Chine à la crise économique mondiale est la principale raison pour laquelle les turbulences financières entrainées par la débâcle des subprimes américains n’ont pas entièrement détruit l’économie mondiale et conduit à une redite de la Grande Dépression des années 30.

Dans une fameuse analyse, l’historien économique Charles Kindleberger affirmait que la Grande Dépression trouvait sa source dans l’absence de gouvernance mondiale. La Grande Bretagne était la puissance hégémonique du 19ème siècle mais le coût de son engagement dans la première guerre mondiale avait considérablement affaibli son statut de créancier.

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