Es necesario reequilibrar las relaciones económicas EU-China

CAMBRIDGE- A medida que la economía mundial se estabiliza, existe el riesgo creciente de que Estados Unidos y China regresen a los patrones económicos previos a la crisis, lo que supondría un riesgo para ellos y para el resto del mundo. A pesar de la retórica de los funcionarios chinos sobre la necesidad de una nueva moneda mundial que remplace al dólar, y los coqueteos de los legisladores estadounidenses con las cláusulas “ Buy American ” (que atemorizan a todos, no sólo a los chinos), nadie querrá hacer olas en un barco que está por naufragar. Así pues, China sigue teniendo un superávit comercial gigantesco y Estados Unidos sigue gastando y pidiendo préstamos.

No hay duda de que la estabilidad a corto plazo parece muy atractiva en estos momentos. No obstante, si las relaciones comerciales y de deuda entre China y Estados Unidos simplemente se reanudan a partir de donde se quedaron ¿qué evitará que vuelva a darse la misma dinámica insostenible que acabamos de presenciar? Después de todo, los enormes préstamos solicitados por Estados Unidos en el extranjero fueron claramente un factor clave que contribuyó a crear el reciente caos financiero, mientras que la excesiva dependencia de China del crecimiento impulsado por las exportaciones la ha hecho muy vulnerable a una caída brusca de la demanda global.

Los gigantescos estímulos fiscales en ambos países han servido para evitar temporalmente más daños, pero ¿dónde están los cambios que se necesitan? En estos momentos, ¿no sería mejor aceptar más ajustes mediante un crecimiento postcrisis más lento, que tendernos una trampa que nos llevaría a una crisis mayor?

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