平衡美中经济的相互关系

剑桥——随着全球经济形势逐渐稳定,一种担忧之声不断渐渐响起:美国和中国是否会重复走经济危机发生之前的老路,如果这样的话,这不仅关系到美中之间,整个世界都会处于危险之中。尽管中国官员象征性的提出,希望有一种全球性货币来取代美元,尽管美国的立法官员也草率地推出“购买美国货”的条款,(这不仅吓坏了中国人,更让整个世界担忧。)但是,应该没有人会想要目前的经济再更雪上加霜。于是乎,中国还是维持着巨大的贸易顺差,而美国继续透支着借贷和消费。

目前,暂时的经济稳定局面看起来似乎还不错。如果美中贸易和债务关系还是维持原来的模式,那我们怎么能阻止已经发生的动荡金融局面的再度重演?很显然,美国对外巨额负债是这场金融乱局的关键因素。在全球需求急剧下降的背景下,中国对外向型经济的过分依赖也使得局面更加动荡。

虽然两国随后推出的巨额财政刺激方案,暂时缓解了局面进一步恶化,但实质性的政策改变却没有随后跟上。我们是应该对危机后的经济缓慢增长作出相应的调整,还是要再承受一次更大的经济崩盘么?

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