平衡美中经济的相互关系

剑桥——随着全球经济形势逐渐稳定,一种担忧之声不断渐渐响起:美国和中国是否会重复走经济危机发生之前的老路,如果这样的话,这不仅关系到美中之间,整个世界都会处于危险之中。尽管中国官员象征性的提出,希望有一种全球性货币来取代美元,尽管美国的立法官员也草率地推出“购买美国货”的条款,(这不仅吓坏了中国人,更让整个世界担忧。)但是,应该没有人会想要目前的经济再更雪上加霜。于是乎,中国还是维持着巨大的贸易顺差,而美国继续透支着借贷和消费。

目前,暂时的经济稳定局面看起来似乎还不错。如果美中贸易和债务关系还是维持原来的模式,那我们怎么能阻止已经发生的动荡金融局面的再度重演?很显然,美国对外巨额负债是这场金融乱局的关键因素。在全球需求急剧下降的背景下,中国对外向型经济的过分依赖也使得局面更加动荡。

虽然两国随后推出的巨额财政刺激方案,暂时缓解了局面进一步恶化,但实质性的政策改变却没有随后跟上。我们是应该对危机后的经济缓慢增长作出相应的调整,还是要再承受一次更大的经济崩盘么?

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/eBTL2gF/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.