对俄罗斯的现实主义

柏林 – 俄罗斯要在自称的“近邻”地区改变后苏联时代的格局。在格鲁吉亚取得胜利后,俄罗斯将以更大的决心贯彻这一策略。欧洲不应抱以任何幻想,并应该开始做好准备。但是,当欧盟在考虑如何应对时,出现了冷峻的现实主义,而并非歇斯底里的过度反应。

不幸的是,把目前高加索地区的形势等同于1968年苏联对捷克斯洛伐克的入侵,并不能解释这种现实主义。西方和北约现在都构不成对俄罗斯重大的战略威胁,而威胁是来自南部的伊斯兰和远东地区,尤其是崛起的超级大国中国。还有,如今的俄罗斯的国力根本不能和前苏联相比。

事实是,从人口统计学的角度看,俄罗斯正在大步衰退。除了物资的出口,它对全球经济的贡献很小。

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