الواقعية في التعامل مع روسيا

برلين ـ إن الإستراتيجية التي تتبناها روسيا في محاولة تعديل النظام ما بعد السوفييتي في المنطقة التي أطلقت عليه "جوارها القريب" سوف تستمر وربما بقدر أعظم من الدأب والمثابرة بعد انتصارها في جورجيا. ولا ينبغي لأوروبا أن ترتكن إلى الأوهام فيما يتصل بهذه الحقيقة، بل ويتعين عليها أن تبدأ في إعداد نفسها. ولكن بينما يتفكر الاتحاد الأوروبي ملياً فيما ينبغي عليه أن يفعل فلابد له من الاستعانة بالواقعية الهادئة وليس المبالغة في ردود الأفعال الهستيرية.

مما يدعو للأسف أن تشبيه الموقف الحالي في القوقاز بغزو الاتحاد السوفييتي لتشيكوسلوفاكيا في العام 1968 لا يشير إلى تحلي أوروبا بهذا النوع من الواقعية. فلا الغرب ولا حلف شمال الأطلنطي يشكل الخطر الإستراتيجي الرئيسي الذي يهدد روسيا، بل إن التهديد يأتي روسيا من الجنوب الإسلامي ومن أقصى الشرق، وبصورة خاصة القوة العظمى الناشئة الصين. فضلاً عن ذلك فإن قوة روسيا لا تقارن بقوة الاتحاد السوفيتي السابق بأي حال من الأحوال.

الحقيقة أن روسيا تشهد تدهوراً خطيراً على الصعيد الديموغرافي. فهي باستثناء صادراتها من السلع الأساسية، ليس لديها إلا القليل مما يمكنها أن تساهم به في الاقتصاد العالمي.

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