https://prosyn.org/YoMBKHBzh
As a global problem that will remain a threat everywhere as long as it is still present anywhere, the novel coronavirus demands a collective and collaborative response. With a new COVID-19 Technology Access Pool to share data and intellectual property, all countries and companies now have a chance to become a part of the solution.
The Chinese government’s decision to impose a draconian new security law on the city has sparked a fresh wave of local protests and triggered hostile reactions around the world. The measure will have dramatic consequences for Hong Kong and its people – but potentially for China’s communist regime, too.
纽约—无风险全球利率的新篇章已经写就。在一篇最新研究中，英格兰银行的保罗·施梅尔京（Paul Schmelzing）追踪1311-2018年间的全球真实（经通胀调整的）利率。他发现，除了1550-1640、1820-1850和1950-1980年出现过暂时性的稳定期之外，全球安全真实利率在过去五个世纪中始终趋于下降，十四世纪后，负安全利率逐步变得频繁起来。
根据这一历史记录，施梅尔京质疑哈佛大学的劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence H. Summers）等人提出的假说，即发达经济体正在经历“长期停滞”。长期停滞说“与近几十年来的长期动态相悖，”因此，施梅尔京认为这“完全是误导。”
但是，施梅尔京的实证研究必然带来了一些谨慎的质疑。他所归类的所谓的安全利率，实际上可能包括了违约风险溢价，而这一溢价可能随时间而发生系统性的改变。早期通胀数据可能并不可靠。并且，即使施梅尔京的数据提供了关于十四世纪以来真实利率发展的无偏且可靠的描述，也无法轻易得出2020年及以后长期停滞假说的可靠性结论。
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