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过去的利率和未来的增长

Jan 13, 2020 Willem H. Buiter

纽约—无风险全球利率的新篇章已经写就。在一篇最新研究中，英格兰银行的保罗·施梅尔京（Paul Schmelzing）追踪1311-2018年间的全球真实（经通胀调整的）利率。他发现，除了1550-1640、1820-1850和1950-1980年出现过暂时性的稳定期之外，全球安全真实利率在过去五个世纪中始终趋于下降，十四世纪后，负安全利率逐步变得频繁起来。

根据这一历史记录，施梅尔京质疑哈佛大学的劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence H. Summers）等人提出的假说，即发达经济体正在经历“长期停滞”。长期停滞说“与近几十年来的长期动态相悖，”因此，施梅尔京认为这“完全是误导。”

但是，施梅尔京的实证研究必然带来了一些谨慎的质疑。他所归类的所谓的安全利率，实际上可能包括了违约风险溢价，而这一溢价可能随时间而发生系统性的改变。早期通胀数据可能并不可靠。并且，即使施梅尔京的数据提供了关于十四世纪以来真实利率发展的无偏且可靠的描述，也无法轻易得出2020年及以后长期停滞假说的可靠性结论。

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Jock Encombe Jan 19, 2020

The absence of any reference in the article to the climate crisis, the continued destruction of our planet's natural resources or the rise in structural inequality, demonstrate the increasing irrelevance of 'traditional' economics to the challenges of our time. Fortunately, there are many other economists and students of economics who are working together to address the tragic failure of their discipline.
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Brian Setzler Jan 19, 2020

What natural interest rate should we aim to achieve? For the Fed to remain the primary recession-fighter, we might need 5%. But if capital is so abundant that wealth holders have run out of ideas to use it, why should we reward them with a high return for no risk? And the long-term investments needed to repair infrastructure and fight climate change are so much easier with low rates.

So maybe it's time for a new paradigm in macro stabilization. Maybe the Fed should hold rates steady at 0-1%, and we should fight recessions with deficits. If so, we need better fiscal policy tools ASAP! Obama started worrying about the deficit in 2010. The GOP hates deficits that stimulate demand, but loves deficits that go to people who can't figure out how to spend their existing money. It doesn't inspire confidence!
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gordon bjork Jan 13, 2020

Buiter fails to understand that the growth of potential supply in advanced industrial economies is limited by structural change toward service sectors where output growth is difficult to measure and a demographic decline in the participation rate.
- Alan Luchetti Jan 14, 2020
  
  Why overcomplicate matters? Doesn't secular austerity explain secular stagnation?
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Robert Wolff Jan 13, 2020

A lot of over-analysis here. What is clear about changes in America, as perceived by the older generations who lived through them, is the loss of Middle Class Values (everybody worked hard and everybody gained from it.) As we have lost this fundamental value of American Democracy the Middle Class has lost political, social and economic influence over the leadership.

With Global Capitalism, the Moneyed Elite want to continue to concentrate their political and financial power gains into their elite group, at the expense of dispensing with the historic Middle Class Work Ethic and solidarity of Americans for their institutions and the reciprocal support of American institutions for Americans.

The Moneyed Elites in America are now waging economic warfare on the World and on the American Middle Class which have become non-compliant with the elitists' goals for more power, more wealth, and dictatorial control over the world using their autocratic control over the World's money system.

In the above way, secular stagnation is not a dysfunctional collective choice; it is the choice of the rulers of the American financial system which has overcome collective power and now makes all the rules and choices in order to increase/concentrate its power over not only Americans but all the World's Peoples.
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