Neubewertung der iranischen Nuklearbedrohung

Wäre es eine große Katastrophe, wenn der Iran in den Besitz von Atomwaffen käme? Als gewohnheitsmäßiger Nonkonformist stelle ich diese Frage, weil fast jeder dies zu glauben scheint und meint, es müsse um jeden Preis verhindert werden. Aber stimmt es?

Der ehemalige US-Botschafter bei den Vereinten Nationen John Bolton erklärte im April: „Wenn wir vor die Wahl gestellt sind, [den Iran] weiter Fortschritte [in Richtung der Atombombe] machen zu lassen oder Gewalt einzusetzen, so stehen wir meiner Meinung an einem ähnlichen Punkt wie beim Einmarsch Hitlers ins Rheinland.“ Auch Bush hat den iranischen Präsidenten Mahmoud Ahmadinedschad mit Hitler verglichen.

Doch ziehen diese so genannten Staatsmänner nie in Betracht, was wohl passiert wäre, wenn Deutschland und Großbritannien 1939 beide Atomwaffen gehabt hätten. Wäre Hitler, so schlecht er auch war, in den Krieg gezogen, wenn er sich der sicheren Bedrohung völliger Vernichtung gegenübergesehen hätte? Haben wir alle die Theorie der Abschreckung vergessen?

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