Tim Brinton

Das Rasseln des Renminbi

PEKING – Von Juli 2005 bis vergangenen Dezember ist der Wert des Renminbi (RMB) stetig gestiegen. Doch dann fiel er unerwartet elf Handelstage hintereinander an das untere Limit der von der chinesischen Zentralbank festgelegten täglichen Handelsbandbreite. Obwohl der RMB seitdem seinen vorherigen Aufwärtstrend wieder aufgenommen hat, hat die Episode doch möglicherweise eine bleibende Veränderung im Muster der Wechselkursbewegung hinterlassen.

Solange China einen Handelsbilanzüberschuss hatte und Nettozuflüsse von ausländischen Direktinvestitionen erhielt, war der RMB unter Aufwertungsdruck. Kurzfristige Kapitalzuflüsse hatten nur geringe Auswirkungen auf die Richtung des Wechselkurses des RMB.

Dafür gab es zwei Gründe. Erstens, dank einer wirksamen – wenn auch durchlässigen – Kapitalkontrolle in China konnte kurzfristiges „heißes“ Geld (Kapital, das gezielt für Arbitrage-Geschäfte, Besitzstandswahrung und Spekulation ins Land kommt) nicht frei und schnell ins Land kommen (und es genauso schnell wieder verlassen). Zweitens stärken kurzfristige Kapitalflüsse den Aufwärtsdruck auf den Wechselkurs, anstatt ihn zu schwächen, weil Spekulanten aufgrund der schrittweisen Herangehensweise Chinas hinsichtlich einer Neubewertung auf eine Aufwertung wetten.

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