Los riesgos de la expansión monetaria competitiva

MUMBAI – Las políticas monetarias no convencionales que adoptaron muchos países avanzados en respuesta a la crisis económica internacional de la que el mundo intenta recuperarse parecen gozar ahora de amplia aceptación. Pero en las economías que están muy endeudadas, inseguras respecto de sus políticas o con la demanda interna limitada por la necesidad de encarar reformas estructurales, es lícito preguntarse si los beneficios obtenidos por la flexibilización monetaria en los países de origen compensan sus efectos perjudiciales sobre el resto.

Peor aún, no tener en cuenta los efectos derrame puede llevar al mundo a una peligrosa escalada en la aplicación de políticas no convencionales. Para asegurar un crecimiento económico estable y sostenible, es necesario que los líderes mundiales reexaminen las reglas internacionales del juego monetario, para que tanto las economías avanzadas como las emergentes adopten políticas monetarias que beneficien a todos.

Es indudable que políticas no convencionales como la flexibilización cuantitativa tienen su razón de ser: cuando los mercados están destruidos o altamente disfuncionales, los bancos centrales tienen que ser innovadores. De hecho, muchas de las medidas aplicadas inmediatamente después de la caída del banco de inversión estadounidense Lehman Brothers en 2008 fueron totalmente acertadas, a pesar de que los bancos centrales no tenían un manual que les dijera qué hacer.

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