Einhalt dem geldpolitischen Lockerungswettlauf

MUMBAI – Während die Welt damit zu kämpfen hat, sich von der globalen Wirtschaftskrise zu erholen, haben die unkonventionellen geldpolitischen Maßnahmen, die viele Industrieländer im Zuge der Krise ergriffen haben, anscheinend breite Akzeptanz erlangt. In jenen Volkswirtschaften indes, in denen es einen Schuldenüberhang gibt, in denen politische Unsicherheit herrscht oder die Notwendigkeit von Strukturreformen die Inlandsnachfrage hemmt, wird die berechtigte Frage gestellt, ob die nationalen Vorteile dieser Maßnahmen ihre nachteiligen Auswirkungen auf andere Volkswirtschaften ausgeglichen haben.

Noch problematischer ist, dass die Gleichgültigkeit gegenüber diesen Spillover-Effekten dazu führen könnte, dass die Weltwirtschaft den gefährlichen Weg beschreitet, unkonventionelle geldpolitische Maßnahmen nach dem „Wie du mir, so ich dir“-Prinzip zu ergreifen. Um ein stabiles und nachhaltiges Wirtschaftswachstum zu gewährleisten, müssen die weltweit führenden Politiker die internationalen Spielregeln der Geldpolitik überprüfen und Industrieländer ebenso wie Schwellenländer geldpolitische Maßnahmen ergreifen, die für beide Seiten vorteilhafter sind.

Unkonventionellen geldpolitischen Maßnahmen wie der quantitativen Lockerung (Quantitative Easing, kurz QE) kommt durchaus eine Rolle zu. Wenn Märkte zusammenbrechen oder schwerwiegend in ihrer Funktionsfähigkeit gestört sind, müssen Zentralbanker innovativ denken. Tatsächlich ist vieles von dem, was unmittelbar nach dem Zusammenbruch der US-Investmentbank Lehman Brothers im Jahr 2008 unternommen wurde, genau richtig gewesen, obwohl die Zentralbanker keinen Leitfaden hatten, an dem sie sich hätten orientieren können.

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