Raúl Castro’s China Strategy

CIUDAD DE MÉXICO – La renuncia de Fidel Castro a dos de sus tres cargos, junto con el nombramiento de su hermano menor, Raúl, como sucesor marca el fin de una era... de algún modo. Raúl reemplazó a Fidel como Presidente de los Consejos de Ministros y del Estado, pero no como Primer secretario General del Partido Comunista Cubano. Y, en una escena digna de los años gloriosos del estalinismo, Raúl recibió el permiso unánime del "parlamento" cubano para consultar con Fidel acerca de todos los temas de importancia.

Mientras Fidel siga dando vueltas alrededor –escribiendo, reuniéndose con dignatarios extranjeros y manifestando su opinión en todo tipo de temas, desde el etanol a la campaña presidencial estadounidense- dos cosas seguirán claras. En primer lugar, Raúl apenas será capaz de iniciar las reformas modestas y estrictamente normativas y económicas con las que espera, con cierta ingenuidad, volver a poner comida en las mesas de los cubanos.

En segundo lugar, si bien el plan de sucesión creado por los Castro hace algunos años tiene la ventaja de dar estabilidad y predecibilidad, Raúl no podrá reemplazar la vieja guardia con líderes más jóvenes (su sucesor en las Fuerzas Armadas tiene 72 años y el vicepresidente tiene 77). Hacerlo daría a quien sea que escoja una ventaja cuando Raúl, que tiene 76 años, se jubile y él y Fidel no necesariamente estén de acuerdo en quién debería ser el próximo.

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