Raúl Castros China-Strategie

MEXICO CITY -- Fidel Castros Rücktritt von zwei seiner drei Führungsposten sowie die Ernennung seines jüngeren Bruders Raúl zu seinem Nachfolger, markieren das Ende einer Ära...mehr oder weniger. Raúl folgte Fidel als Präsident des kubanischen Ministerrates und des Staatsrates nach, aber nicht als Erster Sekretär der Kommunistischen Partei Kubas. Und fast wie in den glorreichen alten Tagen des Stalinismus, wurde Raúl vom kubanischen „Parlament“ einstimmig mit der Erlaubnis ausgestattet, sich in allen wesentlichen Fragen mit Fidel zu beraten.

Solange Fidel noch präsent ist – schreibt, ausländische Würdenträger trifft und sich in alle Fragen von Ethanol bis hin zum amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlkampf einmischt – sind zwei Dinge klar. Erstens, dass Raúl kaum in der Lage sein wird, selbst bei den minimalsten wirtschaftlichen und regulativen Reformen etwas zu bewegen, von denen er – etwas naiv – hofft, damit wieder Essen auf die kubanischen Tische zu bringen.

Zweitens ist ebenfalls klar, dass die Nachfolgeregelung, die Castro vor Jahren konzipierte, zwar Vorteile im Hinblick auf Stabilität und Berechenbarkeit bringt, Raúl aber deswegen die alte Garde nicht durch jüngeres Führungspersonal ersetzen können wird (sein Nachfolger bei der Armee ist 72 und seine Vizepräsident 77). Würde das geschehen, hätten die ernannten Personen einen Vorteil, wenn der 76 Jahre alte Raúl einst stirbt. Außerdem sind sich Fidel und  Raúl nicht unbedingt einig, wer die Nachfolge antreten soll. 

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