劳尔·卡斯特罗的中国策略

墨西哥城——菲德尔·卡斯特罗辞去三个领导岗位中的两个,再加上他弟弟劳尔的继承任命,标志着一个时代的结束..至少是在某种意义上。劳尔接替菲德尔出任部长理事会主席和国家主席,但古巴共产党第一书记仍然由菲德尔本人亲自担任。而在堪与斯大林主义的鼎盛时代相媲美的大好形势下,劳尔得到了古巴“议会”的一致许可,在所有重要问题上征求菲德尔的意见。

只要菲德尔仍然健在——依然撰写文稿、会见外国显贵并参与从酒精到美国总统选举的一切事务决策——有两件事情显而易见。第一,劳尔很难在他所期望的即便是非常温和、严格限于经济和制度意义的改革当中获得进展,尽管有些天真,但劳尔希望这样的改革能在古巴民众的餐桌上重新摆满食品。

第二,尽管卡斯特罗兄弟多年以前设计的继任安排有着稳定和可以预见的优势,劳尔却无法做到用年轻的领导人来接替老兵(他在军队中的继承人已经72岁,而他的副总统则已77岁高龄)。当76岁的劳尔去世时,这样做会让他选中的任何人获得优势,而他和菲德尔却并不一定能在由谁接任的问题上达成一致。

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