Quo vadis Iran?

Der Iran ist dabei, die größte historische Chance des Landes seit der Revolution von 1979, ja, vielleicht sogar der letzten hundert Jahre seit seiner ersten Verfassung im Jahr 1907, zu vertun. Und diese Chance heißt Barack Obama.

Dessen Politik der ausgestreckten Hand bietet für das Land diese einmalige Chance, wenn, ja, wenn die Führung in Teheran diese ergreifen wird, wofür gegenwärtig allerdings wenig bis nichts spricht. Denn für die Revolutionäre in Teherans Machtelite ist Obamas Angebot zugleich die größte Gefahr, da sie nichts so sehr fürchten, wie Öffnung und einen Abbau von Spannungen. Bush und seine Neocons waren hingegen willkommen, weil sie im Iran die Reihen geschlossen hielten und ihnen zudem den Irak und Afghanistan frei Haus lieferten.

Wie alle partiellen Modernisierer in autoritären Regimes wollen die Herrschenden in Teheran moderne Wirtschaft, Technik und Infrastruktur, aber keine Freiheit, Demokratie und Herrschaft des Rechts. Daher rührt ihre große Angst, ja fast schon Obsession vor einer erneuten „farbigen Revolution,“ an deren Zustandekommen sie aber faktisch weiter kräftig arbeiten.

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