Quo vadis, Iran ?

BERLIN – L’Iran est sur le point de gâcher la meilleure opportunité historique qui s’est présentée à lui depuis la révolution de 1979, voire depuis le siècle dernier. Cette opportunité s’appelle Barack Obama.

Cette chance, unique pour la nation, c’est la politique de la main tendue d’Obama – si et c’est un énorme « si », les dirigeants iraniens l’acceptent. Or, pour le moment, rien, ou si peu, n’indique qu’ils vont abonder dans son sens, car cette offre représente un sérieux danger à leurs yeux. S’ouvrir et réduire les tensions avec les Etats-Unis est ce qu’ils craignent le plus. En effet, le régime a applaudi George W. Bush et son administration néo-conservatrice, qui leur permettait de resserrer les rangs, tout en disposant d’assez de marge pour influencer l’Irak et l’Afghanistan.

A l’instar de tous les modernisateurs partiaux des régimes autoritaires, les dirigeants iraniens souhaitent voir leur pays accéder à une économie, une technologie et des infrastructures avancées, mais pas à la liberté, la démocratie ou l’état de droit. Ce qui explique leur grande crainte, voire leur obsession, des « révolutions colorées », même s’ils s’acharnent de fait à en créer une.

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