中国难以捉摸的减速

美国剑桥—全世界几乎所有国家都在试图提振增长,而中国却在试图让经济减速至可持续水平。随着中国向更依赖内需驱动的服务导向型经济转变,趋势增长降低既不可避免,也值得追求。但挑战也是巨大的,决不能将软着陆视为理所当然。

随着中国经济相对其贸易伙伴逐渐放缓,其出口拉动型增长模式的效率免不了会逐渐消失。因此,大规模基础设施投资——其中相当大的部分是为了支持出口增长——回报也必然会消失。

消费和生活品质需要提升,即便中国许多地区面临着日益尖锐的空气污染和水短缺问题。但是,在一个债务已膨胀至超过GDP的200%的经济中,逐渐降低增长而不导致宏伟投资项目大面积倒闭决非易事。即使是政府拥有大量财政余地抵御下跌的中国,雷曼兄弟规模的破产也会导致重大恐慌。

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