Wie der Öldurst der USA zu stillen ist

Die Vereinigten Staaten verbrauchen ein Viertel des Öls auf dieser Welt während China lediglich auf 8 % kommt. Trotz des in den nächsten Jahren zu erwartenden hohen chinesischen Wachstums, wird der Welt das Öl so schnell nicht ausgehen. Über eine Trillion Barrels nachgewiesener Reserven stehen zur Verfügung und wahrscheinlich wird noch mehr gefunden. Allerdings befinden sich zwei Drittel dieser nachgewiesenen Lagerstätten im Persischen Golf und daher in einer störungsanfälligen Region.

In der Vergangenheit hatten steigende Preise starke Auswirkungen auf den Ölverbrauch in den USA. Seit der Zeit der Preisspitzen in den 1970er Jahren ist der Ölverbrauch der USA pro Dollar des BIP um die Hälfte gesunken. Dies verdeutlicht auch einen generellen wirtschaftlichen Wandel von der industriellen Fertigung hin zu weniger energieintensiver Produktion. Schließlich braucht man zur Entwicklung einer Computersoftware weniger Energie als für die Produktion einer Tonne Stahl.

In den frühen 1980er Jahren beliefen sich die Energiekosten auf 14 % der amerikanischen Wirtschaft. Heute sind es 7 %. Unter Einrechnung der Inflationsanpassung müsste der Ölpreis 80 Dollar pro Barrel erreichen (oder 0,82 Dollar pro Liter Benzin), um auf das Niveau vom März 1981 zu kommen.

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