Euros

欧洲量化宽松的短处

坎布里奇—为何美联储的量化宽松政策比欧洲央行成功那么多?这一理论问题直接引出了一个实践问题:欧洲央行到底是否能够将量化宽松转化为更强的经济增长和更高的通胀?

在美联储引入量化宽松——买入大量长期债券,并承诺在相当长的时间内保持短期利率低位——之前,它已判定美国经济对2009年所实施的传统货币政策和财政刺激计划反应不够强烈。时任美联储主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)认为非常规货币政策能降低长期利率,诱使投资者从高质量债券转移到股票和其他风险证券上。这将推高其他资产的价值,增加家庭财富,从而提振消费支出。

这一策略运转的很好。光是在2013年,股价就上涨30%,同期家庭收入增加13%。因此,当年家庭净财富增加了10万亿美元。财富的增长让消费者增加了支出,重新启动了常规扩张性乘数过程,2013年GDP增长2.5%,失业率从8%下降到6.7%。扩张一直持续到此后数年,目前失业率已下降到5%——大学毕业生失业率则只有2.5%。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/Kr9rwRz/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now