Euros

欧洲量化宽松的短处

坎布里奇—为何美联储的量化宽松政策比欧洲央行成功那么多?这一理论问题直接引出了一个实践问题:欧洲央行到底是否能够将量化宽松转化为更强的经济增长和更高的通胀?

在美联储引入量化宽松——买入大量长期债券,并承诺在相当长的时间内保持短期利率低位——之前,它已判定美国经济对2009年所实施的传统货币政策和财政刺激计划反应不够强烈。时任美联储主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)认为非常规货币政策能降低长期利率,诱使投资者从高质量债券转移到股票和其他风险证券上。这将推高其他资产的价值,增加家庭财富,从而提振消费支出。

这一策略运转的很好。光是在2013年,股价就上涨30%,同期家庭收入增加13%。因此,当年家庭净财富增加了10万亿美元。财富的增长让消费者增加了支出,重新启动了常规扩张性乘数过程,2013年GDP增长2.5%,失业率从8%下降到6.7%。扩张一直持续到此后数年,目前失业率已下降到5%——大学毕业生失业率则只有2.5%。

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