El renminbi y la facilitación cuantitativa

CAMBRIDGE – La política de facilitación cuantitativa de la Reserva Federal estadounidense está devaluando el valor del dólar respecto de otras divisas con un régimen de flotación cambiaria. Sin embargo, ¿qué significa esta nueva política de la Reserva para uno de los tipos de cambio más importantes de todos –el del renminbi frente al dólar y otras divisas?

El efecto de la facilitación cuantitativa en los tipos de cambio entre el dólar y otras divisas con un régimen de flotación cambiaria es un resultado predecible del plan de la Reserva de incrementar la oferta de dólares. El mayor volumen de dólares está causando una devaluación del valor de cada dólar frente a otras divisas cuyo volumen ha permanecido constante o que ha aumentado más lentamente.

El objetivo de la Reserva puede ser estimular la actividad interna en los Estados Unidos y reducir el riesgo de deflación. Sin embargo, intencionadamente o no, el aumento de la oferta de dólares también afecta el valor internacional de esta moneda. Los inversionistas estadounidenses que venden bonos a la Reserva querrán diversificar los dólares que ésta les da. Una forma de diversificación es la compra de bonos extranjeros y valores lo cual aumentaría del valor de esas divisas.

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