La facilité quantitative et le renminbi

CAMBRIDGE – La politique de facilité quantitative de la Réserve Fédérale américaine fait baisser la valeur du dollar par rapport aux autres monnaies qui ont des taux de change fluctuant. Mais que signifie la nouvelle politique de la Fed pour l’un des plus importants taux de change au monde – celui du renminbi par rapport au dollar et aux autres monnaies ?

L’effet des facilités quantitatives sur les taux de change entre le dollar et les monnaies au taux de change fluctuant est le résultat prévisible de l’objectif de la Fed d’augmenter ses réserves de dollars. L’augmentation du volume de dollars entraine la chute de la valeur de chaque dollar par rapport à ces monnaies, dont le volume est resté constant ou a augmenté plus lentement.  

Il se peut que l’objectif de la Fed soit de stimuler l’activité intérieure aux Etats-Unis et de réduire le risque de déflation. Mais, de manière intentionnelle ou non, cette augmentation des réserves de dollars affecte aussi la valeur internationale du dollar. Les investisseurs américains qui vendent des obligations à la Fed voudront diversifier les dollars qu’ils reçoivent dans cette transaction. Une des formes de cette diversification consiste à acheter des obligations et des actions étrangères, entrainant une hausse de ces monnaies.

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