Paul Lachine

Quantitative Lockerung und Amerikas wirtschaftliche Erholung

CAMBRIDGE – Die amerikanische Wirtschaft hat Ende 2010 zweifellos wieder kräftig angezogen. Aber die Frage ist, wie viel davon der so genannten quantitativen Lockerung durch die US-amerikanische Notenbank geschuldet ist. Und was die Antwort für die US-Wirtschaft 2011 bedeutet.

Bis zum vierten Quartal des vergangenen Jahres war die Erholung der amerikanischen Wirtschaft, die im Sommer 2009 einsetzte, eher kraftlos. Das durchschnittliche Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsproduktes betrug in den ersten drei Quartalten von 2010 nur um die 2,6 Prozent – und das meiste davon war reiner Bestandsaufbau. Ohne die Bestandsinvestition wäre die Wachstumsrate des Warenumsatzes schließlich bei unter 1 Prozent geblieben.

Aber das vierte Quartal war ganz anders. Das jährliche Bruttoinlandsprodukt stieg im Vergleich zum Vorjahr auf erstaunliche 7,1 Prozent. Natürlich ist ein Großteil davon auf einen starken Importrückgang zurückzuführen, aber sogar die Wachstumsrate des Warenumsatzes an inländische Käufer stieg mit einem gesunden Tempo von 3,4 Prozent an.

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