Paul Lachine

التيسير الكمي وانتعاش الاقتصاد الأميركي

كمبريدج ـ لا شك أن الاقتصاد الأميركي سجل انتعاشاً قوياً في نهاية عام 2010. ولكن إلى أي مدى قد يكون هذا راجعاً إلى السياسة المؤقتة التي تبناها بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي والتي أطلق عليها "التيسير الكمي"؟. وماذا قد تعني الإجابة على هذا التساؤل بالنسبة للاقتصاد الأميركي في عام 2011؟

حتى الربع الرابع من العام الماضي، كان تعافي الاقتصاد الأميركي الذي بدأ في صيف عام 2009 هزيلاً بشكل واضح. فقد بلغ متوسط نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي السنوي أثناء الأرباع الثلاثة الأول من عام 2010 نحو 2.6% فقط ـ وكان القسم الأعظم من ذلك النمو عبارة عن مخزون متراكم. ومن دون الاستثمار في المخزون فإن متوسط معدل النمو في المبيعات النهائية يصبح أقل من 1%.

ولكن الربع الرابع كان مختلفاً تمام الاختلاف. فقد ارتفع الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بنسبة 3.2%، وقفز نمو المبيعات النهائية إلى 7.1%، مقارنة بنفس الفترة من العام السابق. صحيح أن القدر الأعظم من هذا كان راجعاً إلى انحدار حاد في الواردات؛ ولكن حتى معدل نمو المبيعات النهائية بالنسبة للمشترين المحليين ارتفع بنسبة 3.4%.

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