qatar foreign minister Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

La estrategia de Qatar: esperar a ver qué pasa

DOHA – Cuando el 5 de junio las potencias árabes del Golfo anunciaron la interrupción de relaciones diplomáticas con Qatar por sus vínculos con el terrorismo, el mensaje fue claro: no alinearse con las políticas regionales supone un costo. Pero ya pasó casi una semana, y Qatar no parece tener prisa por amoldarse. Mientras tanto, la incoherencia de la política exterior del presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump, prolonga esta fractura regional.

El intento de aislar a Qatar de la región no cambiará su cálculo de la situación, por dos motivos. Para empezar, el país es demasiado rico para dejarse mandonear fácilmente. Cuenta con un abundante suministro de gas natural que se traslada a uno de los niveles de ingreso per cápita más altos del mundo. Las restricciones comerciales y de movimiento de personas impuestas por Arabia Saudita, los Emiratos Árabes Unidos (EAU), Bahréin y Egipto no afectarán mucho a la economía de Qatar.

La segunda razón por la que Qatar puede darse el lujo de esperar a que sus vecinos se cansen es la importancia estratégica que tiene para Estados Unidos. Como sede de la base aérea de Al Udeid, centro operativo de avanzada de aquel país en la lucha contra Estado Islámico (ISIS), Qatar logró un estudiado equilibrio entre sus lazos con el extremismo islamista y una relación sólida con Washington.

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