Le poutinisme en crise

MOSCOU – "En raison de la situation économique, , il a été décidé à titre de mesure temporaire d'éteindre la lumière au bout du tunnel". C'est l'une des plaisanteries qui court en Russie, alors que le pays traverse sa crise la plus grave de la décennie.

Les gens de ma génération, nés au début des années 1960, se souviennent de deux crises. La première est survenue après l'effondrement de l'URSS. Cela fut presque un cataclysme : rien dans les magasins, le pays en faillite, toutes les économies envolées. La seconde a affecté toute la population, mais elle a été moins grave : le défaut de la Russie sur sa dette interne, accompagné d'une dévaluation du rouble qui a alors perdu les trois quarts de sa valeur. Aujourd'hui la crise est sérieuse, mais on n'a pas l'impression que l'on s'approche d'un cataclysme.

La crise va sûrement être grave, non seulement parce que le prix des matières premières exportées par la Russie (pétrole, gaz et métaux) a dégringolé, mais aussi parce que le gouvernement qui croyait avoir une force et une sagesse illimitée semble mal préparé à faire face aux problèmes qui se posent maintenant. Il est vrai que la Russie détient d'énormes réserves en or et en devise, mais elles diminuent à vue d'œil. Si l'on continue à y avoir recours au rythme actuel – essentiellement pour défendre le rouble - elles seront vite épuisées.

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