Les principes d'attraction de Poutine

CAMBRIDGE – L'agression secrète du Président russe Vladimir Poutine contre l'Ukraine continue, ainsi que les sanctions de l'Occident contre son pays. Mais l'économie n'est pas la seule chose menacée : le pouvoir d'influence de la Russie l'est aussi. Ce qui peut avoir des effets dévastateurs.

Un pays peut en contraindre d'autres à promouvoir ses intérêts de trois façons : par contrainte, par paiement ou par attraction. Poutine a essayé la contrainte, ce qui lui a valu des sanctions sévères. La Chancelière allemande Angela Merkel, la principale interlocutrice européenne de Poutine, a fait part en des termes de plus en plus durs de sa frustration face à la politique russe envers l'Ukraine. Quels que soient les gains à court terme des actions de Poutine en Ukraine, ils seront plus que compensés à long terme, car la Russie perd l'accès à la technologie occidentale, dont elle a besoin pour moderniser son industrie et pour prolonger son exploration énergétique dans les régions limitrophes de l'Arctique.

Alors que de l'économie de la Russie est chancelante, Poutine a de plus en plus de mal à utiliser sa deuxième forme de pouvoir : le paiement. Le pétrole et de gaz, les ressources les plus précieuses de la Russie, ne peuvent pas sauver son économie, comme le prouve l'accord récent de Poutine pour fournir du gaz à la Chine pendant 30 ans à des prix défiant toute concurrence.

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