普京的吸引法则

美国剑桥—俄罗斯总统普京对乌克兰的隐蔽侵略仍在继续——西方对俄罗斯的制裁亦然。但经济并没有受到那么大的威胁;俄罗斯的软实力在削弱,可能引起灾难性后果。

一个国家可以用三种主要方式强迫其他国家满足它的利益:通过压迫、收买或吸引。普京尝试了压迫——结果受到了日益严厉的制裁。普京在欧洲的主要对话者、德国总理默克尔一直在表达对俄罗斯对乌克兰政策的失望,并且用词越来越严厉。不管普京对乌克兰的行为可以带来什么短期好处,都无法抵消长期坏处——俄罗斯将无法获得现代化其工业、将其能源勘探扩展到北冰洋地区所需要的西方技术。

随着俄罗斯经济的低迷,普京越来越难以把握第二种实力工具:收买。即使是俄罗斯最有价值的资源——石油和天然气也无法拯救俄罗斯经济,最近普京以“地板价”与中国签订30年供气协议证明了这一点。

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