La última jugada de Putin

El Presidente ruso Vladimir Putin tuvo bastante éxito en el logro de sus objetivos durante su primer mandato. Fortaleció el poder del gobierno federal, al tiempo que debilitó el mundo de los grandes negocios, la prensa libre, el partido comunista, los partidos liberales y la sociedad civil. Al interior del gobierno, exprimió el poder de los gobernadores regionales, ambas cámaras del parlamento e incluso el aparato estatal, concentrando todas las facultades legislativas, ejecutivas y judiciales en sus propias manos. Mientras tanto, desde que Putin llegó al poder en 2002, Rusia ha logrado una sólida estabilidad macroeconómica y un crecimiento anual sostenido con un índice promedio de 6,5%.

Lamentablemente, el éxito de Putin puede llevarlo a su caída. La fortuna le sonrió en el primer periodo porque reconoció ciertos límites a su poder. Ávido lector de las encuestas de opinión, intentó, enigmáticamente, representar todo para todos los votantes. Ahora, embriagado por su seguidilla de triunfos políticos, parece que se cree libre de toda limitación. Pero ningún político tiene esa suerte. Putin está violando demasiadas reglas de la política y no puede continuar ese camino por mucho tiempo.

Por ejemplo, puesto que es demasiado celoso del poder como para delegarlo y quiere tomar él mismo todas las decisiones, reemplazó con dos hombres ineficaces a un sólido primer ministro y jefe de gabinete. De manera que, en lugar de crear una fuerte línea de mando vertical, paralizó su gobierno.

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