作者:安德斯•阿斯朗德

然而,普京的成功也可能导致他下台。他在第一届任期内还算幸运是因为他认识到了自身权力的局限性。对民意测验的高度重视使他努力满足所有选民的期望。而今,在取得了一连串的政治胜利之后头脑发热的他似乎认为自己可以为所欲为了。但没有哪一个政治家会如此幸运。普京正违反着太多的政治规则,而这种情况不可能长久地持续下去。

例如,普京由于过分在意权力而不肯分权,他想独自进行所有的决策。他用两个平庸之辈取代了强势的总理和总参谋长。因此,他非但没有创造一个强有力的自上而下的统率体系,反倒使政府陷于瘫痪。

这种极度专权的原因之一是普京不信任任何人。另一个原因就是他对秘密状态的着迷。作为一个真正的秘密警察,他依靠着来自圣彼得堡的克格勃圈子。他的权力基础日益萎缩,而他对独立传媒的压制更使自己备受蒙蔽。

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