Gazprom Headquarters Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images

Wie sich Russland über Wasser hält

WASHINGTON, DC – Ob die russische Wirtschaft langfristig nachhaltig ist, ist eine offene Frage. Die Vetternwirtschaft grassiert, und da das Land hochgradig von Öleinnahmen abhängig ist, leidet es unter den niedrigen Ölpreisen. Aber wenn uns die Sowjetunion eines gelehrt hat, dann die Tatsache, dass auch Systeme, die nicht nachhaltig sind, viele Jahre lang überleben können.

Das heutige Russland erinnert mich an das sowjetische System, das ich 1983 kennenlernte, als ich in Moskau lebte. Damals war der KGB-Vorsitzende Juri Andropow (der „Schlächter von Budapest“) noch an der Macht (auch wenn er unter schwacher Gesundheit litt). Ebenso wie heute war die Wirtschaft von niedrigen Ölpreisen, einer nicht lebensfähigen Wirtschaftsideologie, der Verstaatlichung wichtiger Industriezweige und einem autoritärem Regime geprägt.

Aber ein bemerkenswerter Unterschied ist, dass das russische makroökonomische Management heute auf viel kompetentere Weise stattfindet als damals. Trotz anhaltender Sanktionen des Westens besteht in Russland keine Gefahr eines Finanzierungsstopps. Aber trotzdem begrenzen die knappen Ressourcen die außenpolitischen Möglichkeiten des Kreml und verschärfen die Spannungen innerhalb der russischen Elite.

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