Gazprom Headquarters Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images

كيف تظل روسيا بدون مصاعب إقتصادية

واشنطن – تمثل الاستدامة طويلة المدى للاقتصاد الروسي سؤالا مفتوحا. فالمحسوبية منتشرة واعتماد روسيا الكبير على عائدات النفط يعني أنها ستعاني عندما تنخفض أسعار النفط. لكن إذا كنا قد تعلمنا شيئا من الاتحاد السوفيتي فهو أن الأنظمة غير المستدامة يمكنها أن تبقى لسنوات عديدة.

ويذكرني النظام الروسي الحالي بالنظام السوفيتي الذي شهدته في سنة 1983 عندما عشت في موسكو وعندما كان رئيس المخابرات السوفيتية المتشدد يوري أندروبوف (جزار بوخارست) ما يزال في السلطة (وإن كان في حالة صحية سيئة) وكانت الظروف الاقتصادية المشتركة الآن وحينئذ تشتمل على انخفاض أسعار النفط والأيديولوجية الاقتصادية غير القابلة للحياة وملكية الدولة للصناعات الحيوية والحكم الاستبدادي.

لكن ثمة اختلاف واضح هو أن إدارة الاقتصاد الكلي الروسي أكثر كفاءة الآن مما كانت عليه في تلك الإيام بكثير فروسيا بمنأى عن خطر نفاد التمويل على الرغم من العقوبات الغربية المستمرة لكن مواردها المحدودة تحد من خيارات الكرملين في السياسة الخارجية وتؤدي إلى تفاقم التوترات بين النخب الروسية.

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