لماذا تحول بوتين ؟

برينستون – ان سياسة الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين تجاه الجمهوريات السوفياتيه السابقه والغرب يساء فهمها بشكل كبير فبدلا من التركيز على الانماط الجيوسياسيه الاشمل – وخاصة تأثير الازمه الماليه 2007-2008 على السياسه الدوليه- يقوم المعلقون بتحويل سياسة الكرملين الى دراما نفسيه يمكن فهمها فقط من خلال البحث المعمق في الروح الروسيه والنتيجه كانت تفشي المفاهيم الخاطئه عن دوافع بوتين للتحول من ما بدا وكأنه موقف حداثي وتصالحي وحتى مناصر للغرب الى تعديل تلك السياسه بشكل عدائي .

ان هناك تفسيرين خاطئين للسياسه الخارجيه الروسيه الحالية . التفسير الاول اقترحه من يطلقون على انفسهم " المتعاطفون مع بوتين " في المانيا وهو ان السياسه الروسيه هي تفسير منطقي لاستراتيجية الغرب القائمه على التطويق فهم يعتبرون ان توسع حلف الناتو  والاتحاد الاوروبي كان استفزازا لا داعي له وفي واقع الامر ان جورج كينان مخترع استراتيجية الاحتواء الامريكيه آبان الحرب البارده عارض توسيع الناتو في التسعينات لهذه الاسباب بالتحديد.

ان هناك حدود واضحه لتلك النظريه . بادىء ذي بدء فهي مبنيه على الادعاء بانه في وقت انهيار جدار برلين وتفكك الاتحاد السوفياتي وعد الغرب بإنه لن يكون هناك توسع للناتو وحتى ميخائيل جورباتشوف في الذكرى الخامسة والعشرين لزوال جدار برلين اتهم الغرب بعدم الوفاء بالوعود التي قطعها سنة 1989 وبأنه عوضا عن ذلك " استغل ضعف روسيا" في التسعينات من اجل " احتكار قيادة العالم والهيمنه عليه " بما في ذلك من خلال توسعة الناتو .

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