Vladimir Putin Kremlin Pool/Planet Pix via ZUMA Wire

普京绝非反对伊斯兰国的盟友

慕尼黑——美国和欧盟领导人将普京总统的俄罗斯视为反伊斯兰国斗争的潜在盟友是个严重的错误。大量证据与他们的想法相抵触。普京当前的目标是促成欧盟解体,而实现目标的最好办法是让叙利亚难民涌入欧盟。

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俄罗斯飞机对叙利亚南部平民狂轰滥炸迫使他们逃往约旦和黎巴嫩。目前在沙漠中露营等候进入约旦的叙利亚难民有20,000人之多。还有少部分人等候进入黎巴嫩。等候进入上述两国的难民都越来越多。

俄罗斯还大规模空袭叙利亚北部民众。叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的军队在空袭后地面进攻曾居住着2百万民众的城市阿勒颇。桶装炸弹导致70,000人逃往土耳其;地面进攻可能导致更多人流离失所。

逃难家庭可能不会在土耳其止步。德国总理默克尔2月9日飞抵安卡拉会同土耳其政府做出最后的安排,促成已经进入土耳其的难民延长在那里的逗留。她提出每年派飞机接200,000-300,000叙利亚难民进入欧洲境内,条件是土耳其阻止他们前往希腊,并在他们返回土耳其的情况下予以接收。

普京是个天才的战术家,但却不具备战略天赋。没有理由认为加剧欧洲难民危机是他干预叙利亚的目标。事实上,他干预叙利亚是一个战略错误,并因此卷入到与土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安有损双方利益的冲突当中。

但一旦普京看到加快欧盟解体的机会,他就绝不会放过。他用合作打击共同敌人伊斯兰国的谈话来掩饰自己行动。他在乌克兰也采取了类似的策略,即签署明斯克协议却拒绝履行协议规则。

很难理解美国和欧盟领导人为什么听信普京的花言巧语而不是观察他的做法。我能找到的唯一解释是民主政治家试图通过美化现实局面来安抚民众。事实是普京的俄罗斯和欧盟正在与时间赛跑:问题是先倒下的会是哪一方。

普京政权2017年面临破产威胁,届时其大部分外债即将到期,并可能在那之前引发政治动荡。普京的人气依然旺盛,但前提是政府确保财政稳定、且生活水平缓慢稳步提高。西方制裁加之石油价格的急剧下降,将迫使普京政府无法兑现这两方面的承诺。

俄罗斯预算赤字达GDP的7%,且政府要压缩至3%才能防止通胀失控。俄国社保基金的钱已经用光,被迫与政府基础设施基金合并才能得以补充。上述和其他相关进展将对秋季议会选举前选民的生活水平和见解产生负面影响。

加速欧盟崩溃是普京政权避免崩溃最有效的方法。一个四分五裂的欧盟将无法维持俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后对其进行的制裁行动。相反,普京将显著受益于欧洲分裂,受益于它自己精心培植的对商业利益及反欧政党层层关系的利用。

就目前状况而言,欧盟注定难逃分裂的厄运。自2008年金融危机和希腊后续救市计划以来,欧盟已经学会如何在此起彼伏的危机中得过且过。但今天我们同时面临5-6个危机,这很可能成为压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草。就像默克尔所准确预见到的那样,难民危机有可能摧毁欧盟。

当国家或国家联合体面临致命的威胁,领导人最好能面对残酷的现实而不是逃避它。这场生存较量让欧盟和普京领导的俄国成为对手。伊斯兰国对两者皆构成威胁,但不应过高估计它的影响。无论由圣战恐怖分子发动的袭击多么可怕,也不能与俄国造成的威胁进行比较。

伊斯兰国(及之前的基地组织)已经认识到西方文明的致命弱点(畏惧死亡)并学会如何加以利用。通过唤起西方潜在的伊斯兰恐惧症并引导政府和民众怀疑穆斯林,他们想要说服穆斯林青年除奉行恐怖主义外没有其他选择。一旦我们掌握了这一策略,就会找到简单的解决办法:拒绝落入敌人布下的圈套。

应对普京俄罗斯造成的威胁难度很大。认识不到这样的威胁将进一步加大完成任务的难度。

翻译:Xu Binbin

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