Politics

حلم فلاديمير بوتين السوفياتي

Sep 2, 2015 Shlomo Ben-Ami

مدريد- لقد مثلت الصفقة النووية الاخيرة والتي تم التوصل اليها بين ايران وست قوى عالمية كبيرة نصرا للتعددية ولو اظهرت القوى نفسها- الدول الخمسة الاعضاء في مجلس الامن الدولي والمانيا-نفس الارادة في العمل معا لحل نزاعات اخرى فإن العالم قد يشهد حقبة جديدة من التعاون والاستقرار.

للاسف يبدو ان مثل هذا السيناريو غير قابل للتطبيق فمن نشاطات الصين في بحر الصين الجنوبي الى استمرار تقدم تنظيم الدولة الاسلامية في الشرق الاوسط فإن التنافس والصراع يهددان الترتيبات الاقليمية طويلة الاجل ولكن ربما الصراع الاكثر اهمية – وتسويته لها ابعاد على بقية الصراعات- موجود في اوكرانيا وهي بلد اصبحت مركزية للطموحات التوسعية للرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين .

لقد تمزقت العلاقات الروسية مع الغرب بعد قيام روسيا من جانب واحد بضم شبه جزيرة القرم وبدعم الانفصاليين في شرق اوكرانيا ولقد تعمد بوتين اعادة اجواء الحرب الباردة وذلك عن طريق الترويج "للقيم المحافظة" لروسيا كثقل ايدولوجي موازي للنظام العالمي الليبرالي بقيادة امريكا لكن مهما يكن من امر فإن قضايا رئيسه –المذابح في سوريا والصراع ضد تنظيم الدولة الاسلامية وعدم الانتشار النووي بالاضافة الى تضارب المصالح والمطالبات المتنافسة في القطب الشمالي- لا يمكن حلها بدون مشاركة روسيا.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 9 Comments on this article

Allan Bleiken Sep 9, 2015

GIVE ME A BREAK!

Russia did not unilaterally annex the Crimea. This type of misleading propaganda underpins much of the conflict in the world today. The people of the Crimea (as allowed by international law) voted 96% in favour of separating from the Ukraine (with an 86% turnout at the polls). It was Nikita Khrushchev, the Ukrainian Premier of the Soviet Union, who in 1953, conditionally ceded the Crimea and the Donbas region of Russia to the Ukraine to help build a stronger and more prosperous Ukrainian economy.

Given the history of persecution and ethnic cleansing of minority populations in many Eastern European countries, it is not unreasonable that the people of Russian ancestors ( who represent the vast majority of people in the Crimea and the Donbas region), would want to be assimilated back into Russia as a matter of self preservation. All you have to do is look at Yugoslavia, which has now separated into seven separate countries to understand the history of persecution in these countries.

Given the history of Jewish persecution, you would think that a member of the Jewish faith would be the last person to propose a society which is prone to further persecution. Given the fact the world has become an economically integrated society, it is more important than ever, to seek the compromises required to achieve a negotiated peace, rather than advocate war every tine a nation or a minority population has a different perception of what a nation or society should be.
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Argyris Papasyriopoulos Sep 8, 2015

The usual USA-led revolting propaganda...the very moment that has never been a more expansionist or exploitative state around other than the USA
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John Brian Shannon Sep 6, 2015

Hi Shlomo,

I stopped reading at; "Russia’s unilateral annexation of Crimea..." -- as should any diplomat or experienced political observer.

How many more times must it be said?

The residents of Crimea voted 97.1% in favour of rejoining Russia (a country they were joined to for over 300 years, until 1954) and there have been zero protests there against Russia since the referendum was held in March 2014.

Repeating a lie, no matter how many times... does not make it true.

Regards, JBS
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Filatov Jury Sep 4, 2015

The entire article was not written correctly.
I understand that journalists have orders to compare Putin to Hitler and Stalnym and scaring all the rebirth of the USSR, but I do not understand why the West should be afraid of this? The Soviet Union did not fight with the West. It is in Russia should not fear its revival.
Putin is doing a lot for the modernization of Russia, at what is the most pro-Western president of the possible. We can say that it is an effort of keeping the peace in Europe and does not give in to the military and political provocations

Вся статья написано не правильно.
Я понимаю, что у журналистов есть приказ сравнивать Путина с Гитлером и Сталным и пугать всех возраждением СССР, но я не понимаю, почему на Западе этого должны бояться? СССР не воевал с Западом. Это в России должны бояться его возрождения.
Путин делает много для модернизации России, при чем это самый прозападный президент из возможных. Можно сказать, что волевым усилием он удерживает мир в Европе и не поддается на военные и политические провокации
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Michael Public Sep 3, 2015

There will be no conflict between NATO and Russia - any conventional conflict will have a high risk to escalate to a nuclear one and then everyone dies. You, me, Putin, Barrack, your great aunt Matilda, little Timmy and his dog. It will be like Reservoir Dogs, only worse.
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John Burns Sep 3, 2015

If it is true that Putin has "expansionist ambitions" then why on earth would he expand into a totally bankrupt country like Ukraine?

It seems that Russia has all the territory it would ever need as well as vast mineral advantages. One might imagine that Putin has his hands full with modernising his economy and the shaky institutions that run the country.
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j. von Hettlingen Sep 2, 2015

Shlomo Ben-Ami speaks of "Putin's Soviet dream"! True, Putin had lived 39 years of his adult life under Soviet rule. And he had once mourned the collapse of the Soviet Union, saying it was "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century". Nevertheless he said Russia must never return to the cult of personality, repressions and labour camps under Stalin, who ruled with an iron fist for three decades until his death in 1953. However he believes there should be order and discipline in Russia like in the old days. He may not pine for a return to the Soviet Union with its planned economy, but he would seek to revamp Russia's military strength. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was seen as America's sole military threat.
Putin's dream is his "Novorossiya" - new Russia, a region which was in the 19th century under tsarist rule. Politically he is trying to regain the prestige of a Russian Empire, while avoiding the "failure" of the Soviet Union. His ambition in Ukraine is just the start. Many Russians justified their annexation of Crimea, suggesting Southern and Eastern Ukraine were part of Russia. They insisted it was a historical mistake that Nikita Khrushchev made Crimea as part of Ukraine in1953.
Putin's "Russian dream" reminds of Xi Jinping's "Chinese dream" - to achieve "great-power status". Both leaders are being inspired by their countries' past glory to reinvent themselves in the 21st century, aiming to reclaim lost territories and to challenge the existing world order. While Putin reveres Stalin for winning World War Two, Xi praises Mao Zedong to boost power.
But the US needs Russia more than China in resolving "key issues – the carnage in Syria, the fight against the Islamic State, nuclear non-proliferation, and conflicting interests and competing claims in the Arctic". And the author advises the US to be "less dismissive of Russia’s sensibilities" and its "legitimate security interests" on the Western borders. Paradoxically Moscow is neglecting its Far East borders, which China lost to the Tsarist Russia after signing the Aigun Treaty in 1858, seen as an "unequal treaty" by the Chinese.
It's immaterial what Putin's dream is. It's the dream of his people that counts. While he may be grappling with the loss the Russian Empire in 1917 and the Soviet State in 1991, while looking for a replacement, many Russians are working for their "new Russia", which might become reality after 2024, or even earlier, if Putin steps down earlier, or he doesn't run at all in 2018.
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John Burns Sep 2, 2015

We should remain conscious of the current Ukraine emergency is a direct result of NATO's constant encroachment on Russia's direct neighbours. When NATO ups the ante by bringing its bases within a 20 minute Cruise missile flight of Moscow we must realise that defensive trigger fingers inside Russia will very little time to reconcile each radar blip blip before standing down or firing of a retaliatory salvo.
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Max Isert Sep 2, 2015

Very sensible and good suggestions.

However, I think we should remember the late Samuel Huntington when he emphasized the difference between ''Modernization'' and ''Westernization''.

I think Russia wants and should modernize, but I think it does not want to and probably should not ''westernize''.

I think this is the main blindspot most of us Westerners have, we assume progress can only be achieved by democratic means and by further westernizing a nation.

I think Russia can peacefully modernize, without having to give up its heritage, and becoming another Europe or another United States.
Europe and the United States can assist in this modernization process, and can greatly benefit from it, politically as well as economically.

I think we have to make this detailed, but not minor distinction, when we consider a path forward for better Russian-Western relations.

Otherwise, as I said, a very sensible strategy you suggest here.

Thank you.
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