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莫斯科—俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京所公开发表的有关白俄罗斯大规模抗议活动的讲话既有力又模糊。例如,他表示已经组建了一支“执法后备部队,”可能随时参与到白俄罗斯局势当中。但普京所指可能涉及多种不同人员,从交警和镇压示威运动的警察到联邦安全局(苏联时代克格勃的主要继任者FSB)以及像俄罗斯卫队(Rosgvardia)这样全副武装的军事机构。
究竟什么情况会实际促使俄罗斯干预白俄罗斯局势?普京表示“除非局势失控,”否则不会动用“后备部队。”但由谁来决定局势是否失控?如果决定者是白俄罗斯四面楚歌的独裁者亚历山大·卢卡申科,普京完全可以说克里姆林宫只会应“共和国合法当选总统的要求”采取行动。毕竟,1956年苏联军事干预匈牙利和1968年干预捷克斯洛伐克都是本着这样的原则。
但普京没有做出这样的承诺。事实上,普京的公开声明表明,他认为他本人而不是卢卡申科应当对白俄罗斯的政治进程负责。这导致卢卡申科陷入到两难境地:冒着被推翻的风险好过要求普京提供军事援助。
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