kolesnikov12_ Alexei DruzhininTASS via Getty Images_putin

The Caudillo of the Kremlin

Jul 30, 2020 Andrei Kolesnikov

By laying the constitutional groundwork to remain president for life, Vladimir Putin is engineering a further “Francoization” of his regime. But while Francisco Franco at least had a successor in King Juan Carlos, Putin has no such thing. which could spell chaos for Russia.

MOSCOW – Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown his regime’s real intentions. By changing the constitution to allow him to remain in office until 2036 and incorporating conservative new language, it has cast off its teetering mask of democratic legitimacy. But just as Putin has sought to entrench his rule, his regime is looking weaker than ever.

In the city of Khabarovsk, tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in recent weeks, chanting, “Putin resign!” They are not alone. While Putin’s approval rating may seem high, it is low by Russian standards. In fact, his 59-60% approval rating in recent months is his lowest since October 1999, when he was prime minister. And it is unlikely to improve significantly for a simple reason: Putin tried-and-tested methods to win support have lost their firepower.

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Russia hard, in terms of both public health and economic fallout. With oil exports, the mainstay of Russia’s economy, down sharply, the government’s budget revenues have cratered. As a result, the Kremlin’s tacit pact with the public – we ensure your basic wellbeing, and you don’t complain – is unraveling.

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j. von Hettlingen Jul 31, 2020

Andrei Kolesnikov calls Putin Russia’s “caudillo” which means in Spanish a military dictator. While Spain had one in Francisco Franco, Latin American countries have had a long history of military juntas led by caudillos. In a referendum earlier this month, Russians overwhelmingly voted in favour of constitutional reforms, that enable Putin to potentially stay in power up to 2036, or for life, as Franco did with the 1947 Law of Succession. Putin, aged 67, ends his current term in 2024.
The author says Putin is “engineering a further ‘Francoization’ of his regime. Franco had visions of restoring Spanish grandeur, and Putin harbours the same ambition. “But while Francisco Franco at least had a successor in King Juan Carlos, Putin has no such thing. which could spell chaos for Russia.” Another difference was that Franco presided over a regime that was basically a military dicatatorship, while Putin’s is a thugocracy run as a mafia state.
Perhaps Franco’s descendants might resent a comparison with Putin. Despite being a dictator, Franco – unlike Putin – was known to be scrupulously honest, introverted, shunning all frivolous amusements. He was also a man of comparatively few intimate friends, while Putin had given his former KGB-cronies the power to run Russia and enrich themselves. His closest friends have been looting the state and its assets on an extraordinary scale.
Putin’s cronies are said to have moved $15 billion to $25 billion a year out of the country since 2006. Over 13 years that would total $195 billion to $325 billion. At least half of that amount would belong to Putin. He is said to have at his disposal 20 palaces, four yachts, 58 aircraft and a collection of watches worth about $700,000. Apparently, money is power in Russia. Only the richest can rule, so Putin needs to be the richest.
Franco was a careful and systematic leader. His ability to command troops effectively won him a reputation for complete professional dedication. He devoted great care to military missions and paid more attention than was common to the troops’ well-being. Franco was never a popular leader and rarely tried to mobilise mass support. He was self-confident and relatively indifferent to criticism. He did not need a state-run propaganda machine to boost his approval ratings. The author says: “For Putin, however, the impression of broad public support is arguably more important than the support itself.”
Unlike most rulers of rightist authoritarian regimes, Franco “at least had a successor in mind. By having the monarchy restored on Franco’s death, King Juan Carlos could ascend the throne. Putin, however, is leading Russia into a dead end. After all, he cannot bring back the czar. So he has simply postponed the problem of succession. Après lui, le déluge.”
Franco provided for the continuity of his government after his death through a referendum in 1947 that made Spain a monarchy, and ratified Franco’s powers as a sort of regent for life. In 1967 he opened direct elections for a small minority of deputies to the parliament and in 1969 officially designated the then 32-year-old prince Juan Carlos to the Spanish throne, as his official successor upon his death. Franco resigned in 1973 but retained his functions as head of state, commander in chief of the armed forces, etc.
After Franco’s death in 1975 following a long illness, Juan Carlos moved to dismantle the authoritarian institutions of Franco’s system and encouraged the revival of political parties. Spain “atrophied decade after decade under Franco’s increasingly dozy regime,” making great economic progress during the last two decades of Franco’s rule. Within three years of his death the country had become a democratic constitutional monarchy, with a prosperous economy and democratic institutions similar to those of the rest of western Europe, which grew wealthy in the postwar era.
Nevertheless, Putin’s “strategy of preserving power by any means necessary will not solve Russia’s many problems. And there remains the question of what will happen to the system after him.” Under him Russia has reached “a level of inertia – in politics, the economy, and society,” that it would talke decades to achieve what Spain did in the first years of the post-Franco era. Putin is Russia’s new czar, and the world is watching whether he will soon groom his successor. After all life expectancy for men in Russia - many of whom do not reach Putin's age - is lower than the rest of Europe.
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