Putin y Medvedev: ¿compañeros de equipo o rivales?

La decisión de Vladimir Putin de ejercer como primer ministro en caso de que Dmitri Medvedev se convirtiera en el próximo presidente de Rusia hizo que el éxito electoral de ambos en marzo sea prácticamente una certeza. Si bien el líder del Partido Comunista, Gennadi Zyuganov, y Vladimir Zhirinovsky de los demócrata-liberales están en carrera –a diferencia de 2004, cuando ambos fueron sustitutos-, ninguno de los dos obtendrá más del 15% de los votos. Incluso suponiendo que Mikhail Kasyanov, Boris Nemtsov y el líder del Partido Demócrata Andrei Bogdanov de alguna manera obtuvieran dos millones de firmas cada uno para poder entrar en la votación, el resultado será el mismo. A decir verdad, hasta el momento, ninguno de ellos cuenta con más del 2% de apoyo popular.

Sin embargo, mientras que la victoria de Medvedev en la primera ronda de las elecciones parece asegurada, los interrogantes importantes surgirán después de que se recuenten los votos. ¿Cómo se distribuirá el poder entre Medvedev y Putin? ¿Quién estará a cargo? ¿Rusia tendrá que reescribir sus leyes y su Constitución para darle al primer ministro más poder oficial? ¿Putin está arriesgando su futuro político al aceptar un rol formalmente secundario y haciéndose responsable de toda la política socio-económica?

La Constitución de Rusia no autoriza una “presidencia técnica”. El jefe de Estado tiene poderes extensivos, lo cual en sí mismo indica que Medvedev será un presidente fuerte. Es más, Medvedev es un político de carácter férreo y un administrador muy experimentado.

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