Chinese steel plant worker STR/Getty Images

Протекционизм нигде не защитит рабочие места

КЕМБРИДЖ (США) – Политические лидеры США и Европы тревожатся по поводу будущего качественных рабочих мест, но им стоило бы взглянуть на намного более серьёзные проблемы в развивающихся странах Азии. Эти проблемы грозят создать мощное понижающее давление на глобальный уровень зарплат. В Индии, где подушевой доход составляет примерную десятую часть от подушевого дохода в США, каждый год более десяти миллионов человек покидают свои деревни и вливаются в число городских жителей. Зачастую они не могут найти себе работу даже в качестве «чайвалов» (уличных продавцов чая), а уж тем более в качестве компьютерных программистов. Тот же самый страх, который американцы и европейцы испытывают по поводу будущего своих рабочих мест, в странах Азии – на порядок выше.

Должна ли Индия брать за образец традиционную модель промышленного экспортёра, пионером которой стала Япония, и которую реализовали многие страны, в том числе Китай? И к чему это может привести, если в течение следующей пары десятилетий из-за автоматизации большинство подобных рабочих мест станут ненужными?

Да, конечно, существует сектор услуг, в котором занято 80% населения развитых стран, и в котором индийская индустрия аутсорсинга по-прежнему является мировым лидером. Но, к сожалению, и здесь путь вперёд выглядит как угодно, только не гладко. Системы автоматических звонков уже серьёзно потеснили бизнес глобальных колл-центров, а работу, связанную с рутинным программированием, всё чаще выполняют компьютеры.

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