Olivier Douliery/ Stringer

保护主义有什么问题?

波尔图—如今,即将到来的美国总统选举有一件事是确定的:新总统不会致力于自由贸易。推定民主党提名人希拉里·克林顿最多只是自由贸易特别是跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(TPP)的温和支持者。她的共和党对手唐纳德·特朗普则对开放美国市场的贸易协议持完全敌对的态度。与现代共和党传统相反,特朗普准备对福特墨西哥工厂生产的进口汽车和部件征收35%的关税,对中国进口品征收45%的关税。

经济学家们一致认为,特朗普的计划将带来灾难性宏观经济效应。否定自由和开放贸易将严重影响信心、抑制投资。其他国家也将效而仿之,实施本国关税,拖累美国出口。结果将类似于美国国会1930年批准、由声誉不佳的前共和党总统胡佛签署的史穆特-哈雷关税(Smoot-Hawley Tariff)——该措施加剧了大萧条。

但仅仅因为经济学家们形成一致并不意味着他们是对的。当经济陷入流动性陷阱时——即需求萎靡,物价停滞或下跌,利率接近于零时——常规宏观经济逻辑不再有效。这一结论适用于关税保护的总体宏观经济效应,特别是史穆特-哈雷关税。我不情愿地承认,我在整整30年前所撰写的学术论文中就证明了这一点。

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