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2019年风暴的避难所

布鲁塞尔——今年要想成为经济、财政和政治方面平静的一年需要具备哪些条件呢?回答是:一系列威胁稳定的因素是必须得到避免的。

首先,美中之间的贸易战必须得到搁置。11月和12月,金融市场对谈判解决的每一次暗示都做出了积极的反应,同时对每次敌对行动的旧事重提反应都是负面的——而且,之所以有此反应理由非常充分:破坏贸易流动和供应链的关税对全球经济增长都没有好处。就像我们所熟知的那样,金融市场所发生的一切绝不会仅仅局限于金融市场:那里的结果极大地影响了消费者信心和企业情绪。

其次,美国经济必须增长至少两个百分点,这一共识性的预测已经被纳入到投资者的预期当中。如果实际增长速度显著低于这一数字——无论是因为2017年12月减税所带来的甜蜜梦想逐渐消退、美联储扼杀货币扩张,亦或是出于其他某些原因——金融市场将会大幅下行,并对信心和稳定产生负面的影响。

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