Laura Tyson, a former chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton administration, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and a member of the Board of Advisers at Angeleno Group.
发自伯克利—随着新冠疫苗的面世以及支持性财政和货币政策对总需求的推动,美国经济有望在今年晚些时候恢复到疫情前产出水平。但相比之下劳动力市场的复苏则缓慢许多且分布不均,因此就业率在2024年前都不大可能恢复到疫情前的高峰。
如果未来几年的产出增长超过就业增长,生产力将(至少是短期性地)有所提高。国会预算办公室最近的预测是2021~2025年间的劳动生产力每年将实现1.5%的增长,高于2008~2020年间的1.2%。
为了应对疫情,许多企业——尤其是大型企业——已经在通过自动化、数字化和业务重组(包括迅速转为居家办公)以提升自身效率和抗冲击能力。
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