2015年的石油价格

发自伦敦——1979年末,我开始撰写自己的博士论文,内容是对欧佩克国家贸易顺差及其使用方式的实证研究。在之前近十年间,石油价格经历了两场戏剧性的增长,当时各个领域的绝大多数领袖人物也都预测油价将继续飙升,从每桶40美元(当时的历史高点)飙升到100美元以上。等我在1982年完成研究时,石油价格已开始了长达20年的暴跌。油价一直未达到每桶100美元,直到2008年1月。

我曾经开玩笑说,从我的研究中学到的最重要事情就是千万不要试图预测石油价格。随着2014年接近尾声,石油价格再次回到100美元关口——但这一次是下跌。2015年将要面对几大问题之一就是油价是否将继续下降。纵使我之前的说法有点玩世不恭,但我觉得这次自己能找到答案。

在过去的33年里,我有足够的机会来研究石油价格和汇率,包括带领一个汇集众多人才尝试预测石油价格走势的研究部门。这一经历使我产生了一大堆的怀疑——更别说挫折了。但是我相信还是有可能对石油价格走势进行一个大范围的预测。

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