offshore drilling bear market DESIREE MARTIN/AFP/Getty Images

不吠叫的市场之犬

发自伦敦——三个月前,我撰文指出全球股市上涨是经济状况改善的成果而不是“非理性繁荣”的表现。结果评论刊登以后那段时期股价加速上涨,一些“非理性繁荣”迹象逐渐隐现,导致了二月初的大跌。虽然大部分股市仍位于远高于去年11月份的水平,但问题仍然存在:二月的逆转究竟是标志着牛市的结束,还仅仅是暂时的调整?

正如福尔摩斯可能提到的那样,最强有力的证据来自那些没有吠叫的狗。更确切地说,它指代的是那三头在华尔街的骚动下依旧安眠的警戒犬——油价,美国长期利率和货币。

当我们认识到当前全球经济的主要风险已经完全不同于在过去十年间一直让市场提心吊胆的长期停滞,“低位通胀”(low-flation),衰退以及欧洲政局不稳的“新常态”时,这些证据变得如此重要的原因也就日渐凸显出来。全球扩张和资产价格的真正威胁现在来自于通胀加速,不可持续式快速增长以及美国政治管理失策。

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