oil pumping jack sunset Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Los límites para la recuperación del petróleo

LONDRES – Por primera vez desde octubre, el precio del barril de petróleo superó los 50 dólares. Parece un buen momento para actualizar el análisis que presenté en enero de 2015.

Por entonces sostuve que el entorno de los 50 USD, sería el tope para el precio del petróleo en el largo plazo. En ese momento, los precios del crudo aún estaban por encima de los 60 USD y casi todo el mundo creía que 50 USD sería el valor mínimo. Después de todo, los mercados de futuros predecían precios de 75 USD o más; los gobiernos saudí y ruso necesitaban un precio de 100 USD para equilibrar sus presupuestos y cualquier cifra por debajo de los 50 USD era considerada insostenible porque llevaría al cierre de la industria estadounidense del petróleo de esquisto (shale).

Como era de esperarse, el precio del crudo de Brent fluctuó entre los 50 y los 70 USD durante la primera mitad del año, antes de caer contundentemente por debajo de los 50 USD a principios de agosto, cuando resultó obvio que el levantamiento de las sanciones contra Irán desataría un masivo aumento de la oferta mundial. Desde entonces, 50 USD realmente ha demostrado ser un techo para el precio del petróleo. Pero ahora que se ha superado ese nivel, ¿volverá a convertirse en un piso?

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