Belarus honor guards in front of new Russian Mi-8mtv-5 helicopters Maxim Malinovsky/Stringer

Evitar una escalada entre la OTAN y Rusia

BRUSELAS – Tras declararse escéptico respecto de la OTAN durante la campaña, el presidente electo de los Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, comienza a bosquejar una política exterior que puede tener amplias implicaciones para la difícil situación de Europa en materia de seguridad. La posibilidad de que Estados Unidos se aleje de la Alianza llega justo cuando las relaciones entre la OTAN y Rusia están en un mínimo histórico. El considerable aumento de las actividades militares de ambas partes obliga a buscar ideas nuevas para el manejo de posibles confrontaciones futuras.

Las actividades militares de Rusia en las fronteras de la OTAN durante los últimos tres años han incrementado el riesgo de accidentes o errores de cálculo capaces de provocar una escalada de tensiones. Son imaginables diversos tipos de incidentes con potencial de pérdida de vidas en los mares Báltico y Negro, por ejemplo vuelos rasantes de aviones de combate sobre buques de guerra o la interceptación agresiva de aeronaves de reconocimiento. Posibilidad que se tornó muy real en noviembre de 2015, cuando Turquía derribó un avión ruso de combate cerca de la frontera con Siria.

Un informe reciente de la Red Europea de Liderazgo (ELN) señala que los acuerdos bilaterales de manejo de incidentes entre diversos países de la OTAN y Rusia todavía tienen importantes lagunas; no están armonizados entre sí ni adaptados a actividades civiles o tecnologías modernas como el uso de vehículos aéreos no tripulados (drones).

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