Belarus honor guards in front of new Russian Mi-8mtv-5 helicopters Maxim Malinovsky/Stringer

Il faut éviter les incidents militaires entre l'OTAN et la Russie

BRUXELLES – Après avoir fait preuve de scepticisme au sujet de l'OTAN durant sa campagne, Donald Trump dessine maintenant une politique étrangère potentiellement lourde de conséquences pour la sécurité de l'Europe - un continent en position difficile de ce point de vue. Les USA pourraient se désengager de l'OTAN au moment où les relations entre l'Alliance et de la Russie sont au plus bas. Les deux cotés intensifiant leur activité militaire, l'Europe doit faire preuve de créativité dans la gestion de possibles confrontations.

C'est d'autant plus important si l'on considère le risque accru d'accidents ou d'erreurs de calcul susceptibles d'accroître les tensions du fait de l'activité militaire de la Russie à proximité des frontières de l'OTAN depuis trois ans. On peut imaginer un incident entraînant des pertes de vies humaines dans la Baltique ou dans la Mer Noire, par exemple le passage à basse altitude d'avion de combat au-dessus d'un bateau de guerre ou l'interception agressive d'un avion de reconnaissance. Un incident de ce genre a eu lieu en novembre 2015, quand la Turquie a abattu un avion de guerre russe à proximité de sa frontière avec la Syrie.

Un récent rapport du European Leadership Network (ELN) souligne que les accords bilatéraux sur la gestion des incidents entre certains pays membres de l'OTAN et la Russie ne prennent pas en compte tout un éventail de situations. Ils sont de portée limitée, car non harmonisés entre eux, et ils prennent mal en compte les activités civiles et les technologies modernes (tels que les avions sans pilote ou les drones).

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