Belarus honor guards in front of new Russian Mi-8mtv-5 helicopters Maxim Malinovsky/Stringer

防止北约-俄罗斯局势升级

布鲁塞尔——美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普在竞选期间对北约联盟表示怀疑后,现在正开始制定一项可能对欧洲危险的安全局势产生深远影响的外交政策。美国可能在北约和俄罗斯关系达到历史低点时脱离联盟。随着双方军事活动的显著增加,欧洲需要大胆的新理念来管理未来可能的交锋。

由于过去三年俄罗斯沿北约边境不断开展军事活动,如果考虑到不断扩大的可能导致紧张局势升级的事故或误判风险,树立新思维的重要性也不断升级。可能导致生命损失的遭遇战包括波罗的海和黑海事件,比方说战斗机高速掠过军舰或对侦察机的积极拦截。2015年11月土耳其在叙土边界击落一架俄罗斯战斗机使得这种可能性变得非常真实。

最近欧洲领导力网络(ELN)的一份报告指出,尽管北约各成员国和俄罗斯之间存在双边事件管理协议,但保障范围的缺口却依然存在。因为彼此缺乏协调且没有适当考虑包括无人机等无人驾驶飞行器的民用活动或现代技术,现有协议的作用十分有限。

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