Virtud prematura

NUEVA YORK – La insistencia del gobierno de Obama en la rectitud fiscal no está dictada por la necesidad financiera, sino por consideraciones políticas. Los Estados Unidos no son uno de los países profundamente endeudados de Europa, que deben pagar grandes diferencias  en comparación con el precio al que puede endeudarse Alemania. Los tipos de interés de los bonos estatales de los EE.UU. han estado disminuyendo y están ahora casi en el nivel más bajo de su historia, lo que significa que los mercados financieros prevén una deflación, no una inflación.

No obstante, Obama está sometido a presiones políticas. El público de los EE.UU. está muy preocupado por la acumulación de deuda pública y la oposición republicana ha tenido un éxito arrollador al achacar el desplome de 2008 –y la recesión y el elevado desempleo consiguientes– a ineptitud gubernamental, como también al afirmar que se ha derrochado en gran medida el plan de estímulo.

Algo hay de verdad en ello, pero se trata de una opinión parcial. El desplome de 2008 fue primordialmente un fallo del mercado, que se debe atribuir a los reguladores de los EE.UU. (y de otros países) por no haber cumplido con su obligación, pero, sin un rescate, el sistema financiero habría permanecido paralizado, con lo que la recesión posterior habría sido mucho más profunda y más larga. Es cierto que se derrochó en gran parte el plan de estímulo de los EE.UU., pero fue porque iba destinado en su mayor parte a sostener el consumo, en lugar de a corregir los desequilibrios subyacentes.

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