Ошибочная сделка по греческому долгу

ПРИНСТОН – Процесс официального списания долга Греции начался. Именуемый «участием официального сектора» (OSI), он включает в себя несколько инициатив, направленных на сокращение соотношения долга Греции к ВВП до 124% в 2020 году с сегодняшних примерно 200%. Даже когда было объявлено о сделке, в газетных сообщениях выдвигались предположения, что чиновники признали, что меры будут недостаточны для достижения цели; дальнейшие переговоры о дополнительных шагах потребуются в политически более удобный момент.

Экономист Ларри Саммерс ссылается на аналогию войны во Вьетнаме, чтобы описать принятие решений в Европе. «На каждом этапе они приняли минимальные обязательства, необходимые для того, чтобы избежать надвигающейся катастрофы ‑ предлагая оптимистичную риторику, но никогда не предпринимая шаги, которые даже, как они считали, могли бы предложить перспективы решающей победы».

Эту стратегию нужно изменить ‑ и Греция предлагает реальную возможность сделать шаг на опережение. Вместо небольших периодов облегчения, значительный пакет, состоящий из двух элементов ‑ это путь вперед. Во-первых, как предложил Ли Бушайт, адвокат, который руководил реструктуризацией греческих долгов частным кредиторам, срок возврата официального греческого долга нужно значительно увеличить. Простой структурой могло бы стать погашение всех долгов в течение 40 лет, установив процентную ставку в 2%. Это бы избавило Грецию и ее официальных кредиторов от непрерывного страха, который сейчас преобладает.

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