希腊的虚假债务方案

普林斯顿—希腊债务的正式豁免已经开始。这个被称为“正式部门参与”(official sector involvement,OSI)的项目包括数项旨在让希腊债务/GDP比率在2020年降至124%的计划,如今这一比例大约为200%。但是,虽然宣布了该计划,但报纸报道显示,官员认为其中的措施不足以达到这一目标;在政治上更合适的时候,还将就进一步动作展开后续谈判。

经济学家拉里·萨默斯(Larry Summers)将欧洲决策比作越南战争。“每当关键时刻,他们总是做出避免眼前灾难所需的最低程度承诺——用乐观的语调发言,但从来不拿出真刀真枪,即使他们能够通过这样取得决定性胜利。”

这样的策略必须改变——而希腊提供了先发制人的现实机会。摆在人们面前的前途不是少许债务豁免,而是由两个方面组成的大计划。首先,正如处理希腊私人重组事宜的律师李·布克海特(Lee Buchheit)所指出的,希腊正式债务的到期日将被大大延长。将出现一个简单的框架,让所有债务都延长至40年后偿付,利率在2%。这将让希腊及其正式债权人摆脱当前挥之不去的焦虑。

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