GOP presidential candidates 2015 Bizuayehu Tesfaye via ZUMA Wire

Apreciaciones sobre la primera ronda electoral en EE. UU.

WASHINGTON, DC – Si la campaña para las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses le resulta desconcertante, probablemente la entiende mejor que quienes están dispuestos a predecir su resultado. A esta altura, cuando los dos grandes partidos se preparan para elegir sus candidatos en elecciones primarias al nivel estatal o asambleas partidarias, no es posible hacer predicciones, sino adivinar muy (o poco) informadamente.

La primera de las grandes contiendas, que será el 1 de febrero en Iowa, suele ser difícil de predecir, porque su resultado depende más de la destreza organizativa que de la popularidad. La principal cuestión, tanto en la competencia republicana como en la demócrata, es si los candidatos son capaces de convocar a suficientes partidarios a las asambleas partidarias: reuniones relativamente pequeñas que se llevan a cabo por la tarde en condiciones invernales.

Del lado republicano, la diferencia entre Ted Cruz y Donald Trump cae dentro del margen de error de las encuestas, tanto en Iowa como en Nuevo Hampshire, donde se vota ocho días después. Aunque Trump lidera las encuestas nacionales con un enorme margen, se desconoce la fortaleza de su organización en Iowa y lo que importa son los resultados a nivel estatal a medida que avanza el proceso de las designaciones. Su desafío es que muchos de sus partidarios nunca participaron en una elección.

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