GOP presidential candidates 2015 Bizuayehu Tesfaye via ZUMA Wire

Apreciaciones sobre la primera ronda electoral en EE. UU.

WASHINGTON, DC – Si la campaña para las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses le resulta desconcertante, probablemente la entiende mejor que quienes están dispuestos a predecir su resultado. A esta altura, cuando los dos grandes partidos se preparan para elegir sus candidatos en elecciones primarias al nivel estatal o asambleas partidarias, no es posible hacer predicciones, sino adivinar muy (o poco) informadamente.

La primera de las grandes contiendas, que será el 1 de febrero en Iowa, suele ser difícil de predecir, porque su resultado depende más de la destreza organizativa que de la popularidad. La principal cuestión, tanto en la competencia republicana como en la demócrata, es si los candidatos son capaces de convocar a suficientes partidarios a las asambleas partidarias: reuniones relativamente pequeñas que se llevan a cabo por la tarde en condiciones invernales.

Del lado republicano, la diferencia entre Ted Cruz y Donald Trump cae dentro del margen de error de las encuestas, tanto en Iowa como en Nuevo Hampshire, donde se vota ocho días después. Aunque Trump lidera las encuestas nacionales con un enorme margen, se desconoce la fortaleza de su organización en Iowa y lo que importa son los resultados a nivel estatal a medida que avanza el proceso de las designaciones. Su desafío es que muchos de sus partidarios nunca participaron en una elección.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/9q6dqlB/es;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now